Blue Diamond Growers Almond Market Report – April 10, 2026
OVERVIEW
March position report reflected industry shipments surpassing industry expectations, totaling 258 million pounds, up 16.5% year-over-year. March exports reached 205.2 million pounds, an impressive 21% increase compared to last year and on the heels of last month’s strong performance. Export shipments continue to surpass last year’s pace, now leading by 3% at 1.38 billion pounds. Domestic shipments for March were a bright spot, coming in 1.9% ahead of prior year. While domestic year-to-date shipments remain behind at 391 million pounds, down 15.9%, the increase this month is worth celebrating after months of softer results. Total industry shipments through March stand at 1.78 billion pounds, down 1.9% versus last year. The California almond industry has shown resilience and strong performance despite logistical delays associated with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. With concern around Australian crop quality due to late season rainfall, we may see additional opportunities for California almonds ahead.
SHIPMENTS
India: For the month of March, India imported 39.2 million pounds, reducing last year’s gap to just 3% behind. The market continues to absorb significant volume, though recent arrivals have reduced near-term urgency. India remains a critical outlet for global supply, particularly for inshell, and is expected to re-engage as inventory positions tighten.
China/Hong Kong/Vietnam: March shipments to China/HK totaled 4.1 million pounds, representing a 123% increase compared to a softer prior year number due to newly implemented tariffs. Shipments to Vietnam reached 5.6 million pounds, increasing 8.5% for the month with a 63% year-to-date gain. Combined shipments to these regions increased 39% year-over-year, bringing the year-to-date total into positive territory at 3.7% growth. Quality concerns with Australia’s crop could push buyers in the region to source more volume from California in the months ahead.
Europe: This market continues to perform steadily with monthly shipments of 77.2 million pounds, up 47% for the month. Year-to-date shipments are now tracking ahead of last year by 7%. Buyers remain active though cautious, primarily covering near-term needs as they’ve done all year. The region is expected to play an important role in supporting ongoing shipment pace.
Middle East: The conflict in Iran has been a concerning factor for the industry for over a month. The March report serves as proof that demand across the Middle East remains intact as the region took 21.9 million pounds for the month. The current geopolitical conditions have introduced disruptions and logistical challenges to traditional trade flows in the Persian Gulf. While some markets, including the UAE, have shown reduced activity, other channels, most notably Turkey (+30%) and Pakistan (+170%), have seen increased volume, suggesting demand is not eroding but rather is being redistributed. Saudi Arabia is also expected to act as an alternative routing option to supply regional buyers. The region remains a key demand center with creative execution strategies, and the normalization of logistics is expected to support future activity.
Domestic: In March, the domestic market broke its streak of month-over-month declines since November 2024 with shipments of 52.8 million pounds. This resulted in a 1.9% increase. This was the largest shipping month of the crop year and symbolic as last March was the first month of double digit decreases to the previous year. Year-to-date shipments are down 15.9% in total, but a strong booking month has led to forward commitments moving up by 3.8%. The headwinds facing this market are not gone. With 212 million pounds in forward commitments, more bookings ahead, and a shipment pace normalizing around 49 million pounds a month, the domestic market is set to be able to match the shipment pace achieved in the final four months of last crop year.
COMMITMENTS
Total commitments currently stand at 576 million pounds, ahead of last year by 0.43%. New sales for the month were strong, totaling 240.6 million pounds, up from 217.6 million prior year. The domestic market secured 45.5 million pounds, up from the prior year’s 34.2 million pounds. Exports added 195.1 million pounds of new coverage, up from 183.3 million pounds prior year. Total commitments for the domestic market are now at 212 million pounds while exports have reached 364 million pounds, continuing to provide a healthy pipeline for upcoming shipments. Uncommitted inventory has been reduced by 0.43% from last year, coming in at 763 million pounds versus 766 million pounds prior year. Looking back to the start of the season, the Almond Board of California’s survey on the edible portion of the carry-in indicated 36 million pounds of the carry-in was inedible, suggesting potential for tighter supply this crop year.
CROP
The 2025 crop receipts should wrap up around 2.69 billion pounds with the focus shifting to the 2026 crop. Above average early-season temperatures and periodic weather events introduced some uncertainty around crop set and kernel size. In addition, fuel and fertilizer costs have increased due to the Middle East conflict and water availability is challenged due to limited snowpack and SGMA implementation. Water availability and grower economics will continue to shape grower decision-making for this season, ultimately impacting crop potential. Conditions over the coming weeks to months will be critical in estimating yields and quality. Various estimates will be released in the coming weeks, providing additional forecasts and perspectives, including the LandIQ 2026 Initial Standing Acreage Estimate on April 23 and the NASS Subjective Estimate on May 12.
MARKET PERSPECTIVEThe March shipment performance confirmed that the market is functioning effectively, with global demand continuing to absorb supply at a steady pace. Export markets remain the primary driver, supported by consistent movement into Europe, Southeast Asia, and key Middle Eastern channels, despite recent disruptions. The domestic market performance for the month was encouraging, and the industry will continue to monitor. Buying behavior remains disciplined, with most customers maintaining short-term coverage strategies. Looking ahead, market direction will be increasingly influenced by shipment performance in the coming months, as well as early indicators of the 2026 crop. With bloom now complete and the industry entering the nut set and development phase, attention will begin to shift toward crop potential and kernel sizing, which may introduce additional dynamics as the season progresses. The market is expected to remain stable to firming based on well-balanced fundamentals leading to a manageable carry-out. Continued execution of shipments and normalization of global trade flows will be critical in maintaining the current market balance. If you’re attending the INC World Nut and Dried Fruit Congress from May 12-14 in Macao, China, the Blue Diamond team would love to meet with you! Please feel free to reach out to our team to schedule time. |