Blue Diamond Almonds Market Report – January 14, 2026

January 14, 2026 in Almond Market Reports

OVERVIEW

For the last month of calendar year 2025, December’s position report reflected industry shipments totaling 245.7 million pounds, up 5.4% year over year, supported by strength in export demand. December exports set a record, reaching 196.7 million pounds, an increase of 11.1% versus last year. Export shipments are now only 2.5% below last year’s pace, reinforcing the role of international demand as the primary stabilizing force for the market. Domestic shipments remained subdued at 49.1 million pounds, down 12.4% year over year. Year-to-date shipments through December stand at 1.07 billion pounds, down 6.5% versus last year. Overall, December results confirmed increased momentum in exports and a steady underlying demand base, offset by continued weakness in domestic consumption.

SHIPMENTS

India: December shipments to India totaled 33.8 million pounds. Year-to-date shipments total 132.8 million pounds versus 157.0 million pounds at the same point last year, underscoring a deliberately slower procurement cadence rather than a demand shortfall.
India remains structurally under-covered relative to historical norms. While buyers continue to manage purchases carefully, inventory levels remain lean, and the timing and scale of restocking activity will be a key driver of global pricing and sentiment into the first part of calendar year 2026.

China/Hong Kong/Vietnam: December shipments to China/Hong Kong totaled 4.8 million pounds, nearly a 31% increase versus December 2024. Despite the strong month, year-to-date shipments stand at 13.4 million pounds, representing a 64.8% decline compared to the same period last year. Shipments to Vietnam were 3.63 million pounds, up 6.8% year over year. Vietnam continues to show strong cumulative growth, with year-to-date shipments of 46.1 million pounds, up 73% versus 2024, further reinforcing its role as a key growth market for U.S. almonds. On a combined basis, December shipments increased 19% year over year, while year-to-date shipments are now down only 8% against prior year, which is the smallest deficit seen all season. This signals the continued narrowing of the regional gap.

Europe: Total shipments to Europe reached 261.4 million pounds year-to-date, essentially flat versus last year. Within the region, Spain continues to outperform, while the Netherlands and parts of Northern Europe remain softer. European buyers remain selective and value driven, maintaining near-term coverage while limiting forward exposure. Demand fundamentals remain intact, but purchasing behavior continues to emphasize cautious buying strategies.

Middle East: Year-to-date shipments to the Middle East reached 175.8 million pounds, up 1% versus last year. Turkey emerged as a notable bright spot in December and is now 12% ahead of last year’s pace. Lebanon and Israel have also shown robust year-over-year growth. Saudia Arabia, conversely, is down 42% year over year. The region continues to show improving demand with buyers increasingly focused on premium grades and larger kernel sizes.

Domestic: December shipments reached 49.1 million pounds, down 12.4% from the same period last year. The domestic market continues to experience softer demand with year-to-date results down 18% in total. Forward commitments for the domestic market stand at 202.6 million pounds, down from prior year by 7.96%, demonstrating the continued near in booking strategy we have seen from buyers. Anticipation is that buyers will become more active in the coming weeks to cover remaining Q1 & Q2 needs.

COMMITMENTS

Total commitments currently stand at 496.2 million pounds, trailing last year by 11.6%. New sales for the month totaled 196.7 million pounds with the domestic market securing an additional 42.8 million pounds, while export added an additional 153.9 million pounds of new coverage. In total, commitments for the domestic market are now just over 202 million pounds while exports are hovering just above 293 million pounds. Uncommitted inventory is up 4.4% from last year, sitting at 1.38 billion pounds versus 1.32 billion pounds.

CROP

Receipts through December reached 2.51 billion pounds, reflecting a 2.5% decline compared to previous crop year. Overall crop size after observing the December receipts will likely finish around 2.7 billion pounds. This season, the slower receipt pace was amplified by the late fall and early winter rains. All hullers and shellers will wrap up by the end of January. Growers continue to focus on postharvest orchard activities. The key milestone that will provide the first insights into the 2026 crop is bloom in February.

Market Perspective

The December position report reinforces a market that is transitioning toward a more balanced supply-and-demand profile. Export demand continues to strengthen and diversify geographically, while domestic softness remains the primary headwind for overall shipment growth. Supply visibility has improved meaningfully, and receipts continue to validate a smaller crop than originally projected.

As the industry moves into Q1 and approaches bloom, market fundamentals support a stable-to-firm trajectory, particularly if India and other key export markets begin to accelerate coverage. With inventories balanced, conservative commitments, and global buyers under-covered relative to historical norms, the market is increasingly positioned for improved confidence and steadier price discovery.

Discipline remains critical as the industry works toward a sustainable equilibrium that supports long-term demand development and grower returns. We look forward to connecting with you all at the Peanut and Tree Nut Processors Association, MEWA India and Gulfood.

To view Blue Diamond’s Market Updates and Bloom Reports Online Click Here

To view the entire detailed Position Report from the Almond Board of California Click Here