Blue Diamond Almonds Market Report – February 13, 2026
OVERVIEW
January’s position report reflected industry shipments modestly below industry expectations totaling 206 million pounds, down 9.9% year over year. January exports reached 155 million pounds, a decrease of 7.1% compared to last year. Export shipments now lag last year’s pace by 3.2% at 983 million pounds. Domestic shipments for the month fell 17.3% behind prior year resulting in year-to-date shipments of 294 million pounds, down 17.9%. Total industry shipments through January stand at 1.277 billion pounds, down 7% versus last year. With strong sales, we now see a different picture for commitments, which lagged prior year by 11.5% but now are 2.9% ahead of last year.
SHIPMENTS
India: Shipments to India for the month of January totaled 38.9 million pounds, essentially flat versus last year. Year-to-date shipments remain approximately 12% below prior year, reflecting a cautious but deliberate buying strategy, and not demand erosion. Importer inventories remain lean, and local market pricing continues to hold a premium to origin. Market participants remain attentive to policy developments and post-tradeshow buying activity. This could materially influence near-term coverage patterns.
China/Hong Kong/Vietnam: January shipments to China/Hong Kong totaled 3.38 million pounds, marking an almost 19% increase compared to January 2025. However, year-to-date shipments stand at 16.8 million pounds, representing a 59% decrease versus the same period last year. Shipments to Vietnam reached 1.4 million pounds in January, down 33.5% year over year. Despite the slower January month, Vietnam continues to outpace last year with year-to-date shipments totaling 47.5 million pounds, an upturn of 65% compared to the same point in the 2024 crop year. On a combined basis for these regions, January shipments declined 3.4% year over year. Year-to-date shipments are down 7.7%, but the narrowing gap suggests an ongoing recovery trend.
Europe: European shipments totaled 48.3 million pounds in January, with Spain and Italy continuing to outperform regional peers, both up 13% year over year. In total, Europe is slightly behind last year’s pace, down 3% year over year. European buyers remain value-driven and tactical, maintaining near-term coverage while limiting extended forward exposure. Demand fundamentals remain stable, with purchasing behavior highly responsive to price signals.
Middle East: January shipments to the Middle East reached 29.2 million pounds. Turkey, Israel, and the UAE continue to post year-over-year growth. Seasonal demand tied to Ramadan and improving downstream consumption has supported steady movement, while Iranian imports continue to dampen year-over-year growth. Buyers in the region remain increasingly focused on premium grades and larger kernel sizes, tightening availability in select specifications. Ramadan restocking has begun, and buyers are stepping back in.
Domestic: December shipments reached 51 million pounds, down 17.3% from the same period last year. The domestic market continues to experience softer demand with year-to-date results down 17.9% in total. Forward commitments for the domestic market are down from prior year by 14%. Multiple macro factors continue to have an impact on the domestic market and buyers are sticking with a near-in booking strategy due to demand uncertainty. Many eyes will be watching this market as we annualize out the double-digit decreases that began last March to determine if there are any directional changes for this crucial market.
COMMITMENTS
Total commitments currently stand at 588 million pounds, surpassing last year by 2.9%. New sales for the month totaled 298 million pounds with the domestic market securing an additional 62.4 million pounds subdued from prior year’s 90.6 million pounds. Exports added an impressive 235 million pounds of new coverage versus 149 million pounds in prior year. Total commitments for the domestic market are now at 214 million pounds while exports have reached 374 million pounds, solidifying a comfortable pipeline for future shipments. Uncommitted inventory is up 2.1% from last year, sitting at 1.19 billion pounds versus 1.17 billion pounds.
CROP
Receipts through January reached 2.63 billion pounds, reflecting a 1.4% decline compared to previous crop year. After observing the January receipts and reviewing a five-year average on year-to-go receipts, the final crop may fall below 2.7 billion pounds. All eyes look toward bloom and the potential weather over the next few weeks. Bloom is an important stage in the almond lifecycle in determining production potential for the upcoming crop year.
Market Perspective
The January position report emphasized that the market is transitioning from supply discovery toward demand-driven price formation. Improved crop clarity, strong sales activity, and structurally under-covered export markets support a stable-to-firm market outlook as the industry moves through Q1. As bloom progresses, pricing discipline and orderly market participation remain critical. With global buyers still selectively engaged, and inventories balanced, the market is positioned to respond constructively to incremental demand rather than forced selling.
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To view the entire detailed Position Report from the Almond Board of California Click Here